Off the top I’m Chris, a.k.a Clammers, here to help make all the correct predictions for the week. I appear on a podcast known as 4th Take which takes you around the NFL’s hot takes and gambling picks for the week. All stats you’ll see referenced here can either be found on Footballoutsiders.com , espn.com, or in your heart so you know they’re true.
Ravens win by 4+ (True): Through two games, Ravens defenders have combined to catch as many passes (10) as any WR on the team, but they’re 2-0 and play another brutal passing attack in the Jags. A “home” game from Jacksonville, it won’t matter, Ravens with a 3rd routine win.
Blake Bortles Throws 250+ passing yards (False): The only way he gets to 250 is significant garbage time, and even with high levels of garbage time Dalton and Kizer couldn’t get much going (437 pas yds across two games). Take the under from the brutal Jags passing offence.
Broncos win by 3+ (True): Picking Trevor Siemien? Semien? Seimein? even the newly improved one on the road still doesn’t feel great. While playing the Jets surely has helped, the Bills actually enter with the better ranked defence by DVOA, and have been particularly good against the pass. Why pick Denver? I don’t think any of the Bills WRs are good enough to get open against this secondary so the Broncos win a low scoring affair.
Taylor has 200+ passing and 30+ rushing (False): Don’t think the game is enough of a blowout for the “No Fly Zone” to be giving up empty yards late, the 30 rush yards seems possible, over 200 passing doesn’t.
Panthers win by 6 (False): To have even a reasonable hope of making the playoffs the Saints need this game. And while the Panthers defence (9pts allowed through 2 games) has been great, the offence, now without Greg Olsen has been hit or miss. Cam just isn’t himself yet, and I think even the Saints bad defence does enough for Brees to win it late. It’s that or 0-3 and a speeding train to the end of the Payton/Brees era.
Stewart has 1+ Touchdowns (True): Kind of a guess, but I think he’ll get any goal line work and the Saints defence has been so awful that I’ll take the chance.
Steelers win by 8+ (False): There’s something still off with the Steelers offence, Bell looks like he needed the preseason after all and Ben just isn’t finding the big explosive plays like last year. While the Bears stunk last week in Tampa, they played Atlanta well at home, Ben has also been brutal on the road the last three seasons (15-10 v. 17-5 at home), Bears cover but the Steelers win.
Antonio Brown 100+ Receiving yards (True): He was mostly contained last week, but you can only keep a guy like this down for so long, he’ll breakout against Kyle Fuller and patchy Bears secondary.
Falcons win by 4+ (True): By the numbers so far this season, the Lions D has gone from 32nd in DVOA (Football outsiders metric) to #4. While I think there seems to be improvement from last year (having Slay back at CB helps), I also think it’s more to do with playing two mediocre offences. The Falcons don’t seem to be missing a beat from last year, and I expect them to show that the Lions still have some work to do.
Devonta Freeman has 75+ Rush yds and 1+ TDs (True): Freeman is one of the the three best backs in the league, and 75yds isn’t all that much. The TD thing is obviously more luck dependent, but I’ll take my chances with Freeman.
Browns win by 2pts (True): My early preseason gaze into the crystal ball was the Browns would get to 5-6 wins this year, and they really need this win against the Luck less Colts. Maybe the chance at winning will remind Kenny Britt to actually run his routes and the same for Coates. GPODAWUND!
Frank Gore has 1+ rush TDs: Last week was the first Gore TD since week 3 of 2016, The Browns aren’t great but I don’t think he’s turning back into a TD machine with Brissett.
Vikings win (False): Case Keenum is a bad player, and bad QBs don’t beat good teams.
Adam Theilen has 90+ receiving yards: Bradford playing = True, Keenum playing = False.
Patriots win by 13pts (False): The Texans D is good enough to slow down a Patriots offence that will likely all enter the game as Questionable (fun!) but Gronk is here (actually fun!). While the Patriots D has had some early season issues, Hightower (also questionable, fun!) should be back, and the Tebow era showed Bill won’t lose to a running QB. Brady is 101-15 at Gillette, Patriots win but don’t cover.
Cooks has 1+ Touchdowns (True): He got to the one yard line week 1, Brady under threw what should have been his touchdown last week, third times the charm and he gets into the endzone this week.
Dolphins win by 6+ (True): The Jets are 0-1-1 on covering to start the year and those were 9 and 14pt lines. 6pts is too low to give anyone playing these Jets, Dolphins get the cover.
Forte has 1+ Touchdowns (False): He’s somewhat splitting carries with Bilal Powell and has never gotten the goal line work for any team in his career. Despite being rated 84 in MUT Forte is on his last go, no touchdown for the bald one.
Eagles win by 4 (True): It’s to Eli’s credit that the Giants have only given up eight sacks in two games as Ereck Flowers best resembles a turn style these days and they might be better off suiting up Brendan Flowers of the Killers. Enter the Eagles front 7 who must be pumped to take on one of the worst offences in the league, Eagles blow them out.
Ertz has 95+ Receiving yds (False): Zach Ertz is set to have a breakout year for the third straight year. But I think he’s also more a volume guy than a big play rack up yardage guy. His long catch last week came off a chiefs arm back to him, and I don’t think lightning is supposed to strike a player twice (or even once, it kills) so I’ll take the under.
Titans win by 3+ pts (False): I like the Titans this year and think Mariota and co are the class of the AFC South, but this has the feel of coming down to a late russell wilson possession where he escapes his terrible o-line for a Seattle win.
Delanie Walker has 1+ TDs (False): I really like Delanie Walker as a Tight End, this is more a pick of match up against Seattle’s fast LB and Thomas/Chancellor than doubting him.
Packers win by 9+ (True): While I don’t always get everything right preseason, my call of the Bengals being brutal this year so far looks great. 0 touchdowns through week 2 and the team just looks lost. Dalton is being exposed without Whitworth and Bitonio and it won’t get any better this week going against the the league’s best QB. Wisconsin Cheese> Cincinnati trash “Chili”
Ty Montgomery has 100+ rush/receiving yds (True): Another that I’d wait to fill in until saturday to get more clarity on Jordy Nelson’s injury. I think he gets there regardless, but no Nelson and maybe no Cobb will lock him in for the passing game more and get him over 100.
Chiefs win by 3+ (True): I think if the Chargers tried to have every season feel the same and feature the same number of heartbreaking close losses they couldn’t pull off what they’ve done the last 3 seasons. It’ a “home game” for them in a stadium that seemed like a neutral site for Miami and should be the same this week. The Kareem Hunt (badly in need of MUT card above 78) show rolls on
Melvin Gordon has 75+ combined rushing/receiving (True): Volume thing here, even against a great D, Gordon will probably get 20 touches, and his YPC and yards per catch get him to 75 easily.
Raiders win by 3+: The Washington run game showed life against the Rams, but the pass offence still isn’t clicking at all (8 receptions for Pryor for 97yds in two games leading the team, yikes) and the Raiders are 26th in Def. DVOA v the run. However, the Skins are 20th v. the pass and this Oakland team has Cooper and Crabapple happy to take advantage. Give me the RAAAAAAIIDDDDUUUHHHSSSS
Marshawn Lynch has 1+ Touchdowns (True): He’s the goal line back, and I’m not buying Jay Gruden’s defence in primetime containing the Oakland offence.
Cousins has 275+ passing yds (True): Sounds like no Rob Kelley, I think they’ll be trailing for most of this game, he might need garbage time to do it, but Cousins clears 275.
Cowboys win by 3+ (True): Don’t let the Cards comeback against a bad Colts team fool you into think they’re good, just the same as don’t let a bad Cowboys blowout against a good Broncos D fool you into thinking they’re bad. This is going to be a Monday Night Blowout
Jason Witten has 1+ Touchdowns (False): Witten had three touchdowns all of last season, he has two already, but I don’t think he keeps up the pace.
Larry Fitzgerald has 6+ receptions (True): Arizona is going to be trailing and throwing a lot. No John Brown just make Carson look for Fitzy even more. 6 catches gets done.