MUT Predictor Picks – Clam’s Crystal Ball Week 4

Maybe it’s cause everyone had a rougher weekend, but MUT lowered the number of correct picks to earn rewards this week, 18 for 5K, 21 for 15K and 24 for 50K. Let’s try to win some coins after 18/34 last week. If you’d like more in depth game previews as well a look around the league, feel free to check out my podcast, 4th Take, the latest episode can be found here:

https://soundcloud.com/user-450598896/2017-week-4-jake-elliott-philly-cheesesteaks-for-life

Titans win by 2 (True): While Watson adds an interesting element to the Texans, I don’t think it’s enough to stop the Titans. The Titans are better nearly across the board (D-line excluded) and I continue to think people are underrating them because of a week 1 loss to Oakland. Titan up!

Hopkins has 7+ receptions (True): Hopkins has had exactly 7 receptions both weeks with Watson who unlike Savage and the Brock Lobster Watson loves throwing to him. Because I think Tennessee wins, Houston will be passing and there’s no reason to think the pattern won’t continue.

Jaguars win by at least 4 points (True): Either you pick the Jags to go 3-1 or the Jets to go 2-2, and I’m not sure which is more ridiculous. While I don’t buy Jalen Ramsey’s “We’re the best defence in the league” I do think they are enough to stifle a mediocre Jets offence.

Jermaine Kearse has 1+ Touchdowns (False): He’ll be covered by the aforementioned Ramsey all game, don’t see him getting open for a score.

Patriots win by at least 9 points (False): Like last week I expect the Patriots to win this week, but even if Hightower finally returns, this Pats defence is not good enough to be covering multiple scores. Panthers lose but cover.

Brady has 3+ combined passing/rushing touchdowns (True): Tying into the whole Pats D is a dumpster fire, Brady is going to have throw and score often to make up for the bad defence. For the third straight week he passes for 3+ TDs.

Vikings win (False): Got the vikings game wrong last week, but still not buying any Case Keenum stock. The Lions got hosed by a really poorly designed rule last week in addition to their defence taking a step back against Atlanta. However, with Keenum at QB I don’t see Diggs and Theilen carrying them for the second straight week.

Keenum has 2+ Passing TDs and No INTs (False): I don’t think he gets either of these options. Lions picked off Matt Ryan three times last week, and Case hasn’t gone back to back games without a pick since 2015 and only done it twice in his career as a starter.

Falcons win by at least 9 points (True): The line is definitely high, but on the turf this Falcons team is going to be tough to beat. Bills are playing better than I expected and at home on grass I think they could keep it close, but Atlanta is too fast and too fun on the turf for them.

Falcons are undefeated inside Megatron’s Butthole. 

Falcons defence has 2+ sacks (true): I feel like this will come down to whether Tyrod’s taking off gets classified as a rush for negative yards or a sack, but this is a strong Falcons D-line in a loud dome. Give me the sacks.

Steelers win by at least 3 points (True): This feels like a game decided by 3-7pts on either side, I’m taking the Steelers and don’t feel great about it.

Joe Flacco has 250+ passing yds and 1+ passing TD (False): Even assuming that beautiful London statline 8/18, 28yds, 2INT was a fluke, Flacco and the ravens offence haven’t been great all year.  Flacco might rebound but this isn’t a passing offence designed to be needing 250+yds in any scenario.  

Bengals win by at least 3 points (False): Numbers wise the Browns defence is actually pretty comparable to GB who shut the Bengals out most of the second half. Both teams get a key defensive player back, Burfict and Garrett, but I’m picking the homer pick of the Browns who get off the 0fer train.

Andy Dalton has 300+ passing yds or 2+ passing TDs (True): The “or” is the key part here. The Browns by DVOA are the 6th best rush defence, but much more vulnerable to the pass. I think Dalton throws a lot this game and gets a couple TDs.

Cowboys win by at least 9 points (False): I think the Cowboys are going to win, but think their defence (21st v. rush, 15th v. pass) is vulnerable to the surprisingly strong Rams passing attack. Give me a cowboys win, but a Rams cover.

Dez Bryant has 6+ receptions or 100+ receiving yds (True): After watching Hoyer and Cousins torch chunks of this secondary and especially the safeties, combined with Dez getting contained the last two weeks, I think he breaks back out this week with a strong game.

Eagles win by at least 2 points (True): I’m done with this Chargers team. Rivers seems almost done with his career, and these aren’t even home games in LA for them. Fly Eagles Fly.

Keenan Allen has 7+ receptions or 1+ touchdowns (False): I think they’ll be behind and throwing, but Phil has never been the type to focus on one WR. I think they struggle to score on this Eagles front 7 and Allen comes up short of 7 grabs.

Buccaneers win by at least 4 points (True): The Giants are ranked 29th in Rush defence and 32nd in rush offence. Yes Odell is back, but not even he can carry all the weak holes of this team. As long as ben McAdoo sticks with that ridiculous haircut I’ll be picking the other team.  

Winston has 300+ passing yds or 2+ passing TDs (False): I think he’ll come up short due to the aforementioned Giants run defence. I think this is a heavy carry game for Jacquizz Rodgers since the muscle hamster returns next week so might as well run him into the ground.  

Cardinals win by at least 7 points (False): No idea what the cards have done to merit being a 7pt favourite over any team in this league. For sure they can win, but the 9ers almost came back to beat the Rams, barely lost in Seattle, which is more impressive than an OT win over the Colts.  

Carson Palmer has no interceptions (False): Too much of this offence for the Cards is predicated on deep balls and Palmer making accurate downfield throws, and his arm just doesn’t seem to have it in him anymore. 9ers pick one pass off.

Broncos win by at least two points (True): Another game I don’t feel great about. I expect the Raiders to play better than that Sunday night snoozefest they put up, but Denver is a tough place and Defence to play against. I’ll take the Broncos in a very close match.

Mack has 1+ sacks (True): The Broncos rookie tackle is having injury issues, Siemian isn’t the most mobile QB to escape the pressure and Mack makes at least one play to get a sack this week.

Seahawks win by at least 13 points (True): I’m not sure what to make of this Seahawks team so far, but at home, primetime after a bad defensive game versus Tennessee, I expect them to rebound and light up the Colts in one of the worst SNF games in recent memory.

SNF features two Super Bowl winning QBs at least

Jacoby Brissett has 200+ passing yds and no INTs (False): Maybe through junktime he gets to 200yds, but I don’t see how he goes the entire game without throwing a pick.

Jimmy Graham has 7+ receptions or 1+ touchdowns (False): Graham is injured (shocker) and hasn’t been effective at all this year (shocker). I personally think Graham is incredibly over-rated, and don’t see him getting close to 7 catches or the endzone.

Seahawks defence has 2+ sacks (True): Brissett isn’t the runner people think he is, the Colts o-line isn’t very strong and this Seahawks pass rush when it gets going can be the best in the league. 2 sacks no problem.

Chiefs win by at least 7 points (True): The Chiefs at this point are the best team in the league. While the Skins looked strong on Sunday night bottling up Lynch and Carr, this Kareem Hunt/Tyreek Hill led offence is a whole different animal. Being played in Arrowhead, give me the Chiefs

Kerrigan has 1+ sacks (true): While this is a great Chiefs o-line and Alex Smith is mobile, Kerrigan has had at least 0.5 sacks each game this year. The Redskins d-line took over against Oakland and while I don’t think they’ll be as dominant Kerrigan will pick up a sack.

Tyreek Hill has 100+ rushing/receiving yds (True): So much of the Chiefs offence is focused on getting Hill/Hunt the Ball whether it’s jet sweeps or deep passes, I’ll hedge on Hill getting 100 here including a play of 50+ yds

Justin Houston has 1+ sacks (False): He’ll likely be matched up against Trent Williams, one of the best LTs in the league, who shuts him out from racking up a sack.

That’s all for this week, good luck!

-Clam

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